Last data update: May 06, 2024. (Total: 46732 publications since 2009)
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Query Trace: Neerinckx S[original query] |
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Historical and genomic data reveal the influencing factors on global transmission velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic.
Xu L , Stige LC , Leirs H , Neerinckx S , Gage KL , Yang R , Liu Q , Bramanti B , Dean KR , Tang H , Sun Z , Stenseth NC , Zhang Z . Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2019 116 (24) 11833-11838 Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 degrees C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions. |
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